Spending on nonresidential buildings will see a modest 4% increase in 2024, after increasing by more than 20% last year according to The American Institute of Architects’ latest Consensus Construction Forecast.
The pace will slow to just over 1% growth in 2025, a marked difference from the strong performance in 2023. Spending on commercial facilities will be flat this year and next, manufacturing construction will increase almost 10% this year before stabilizing in 2025, and institutional construction will see mid-single-digit gains this year and next.
The Consensus Construction Forecast panelists, a group comprised of the leading construction forecasters from across the country, found there are many factors fueling the projected slowdown:
- Tighter credit conditions continue to put pressure on many regional banks that account for a sizeable share of construction lending.
- Higher construction input costs due to inflation in materials costs and labor in recent years.
- Declines in commercial property values as weak demand continues in many sectors.
- Structural changes in demand, disrupting notoriously cyclical construction industry.
“There are several economic headwinds behind the projected slowdown,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “We already started to see construction starts either slow dramatically or turn negative in virtually all construction sectors in the latter part of 2023 and the weaker conditions are expected to stay into 2025.”
Related Stories
Industry Research | Nov 28, 2023
Migration trends find top 10 states Americans are moving to
In the StorageCafe analysis of the latest migration trends, each U.S. state was looked at to see the moving patterns of people in the last few years. These are the top 10 states that people are moving to.
Market Data | Nov 27, 2023
Number of employees returning to the office varies significantly by city
While the return-to-the-office trend is felt across the country, the percentage of employees moving back to their offices varies significantly according to geography, according to Eptura’s Q3 Workplace Index.
MFPRO+ News | Nov 21, 2023
Renters value amenities that support a mobile, connected lifestyle
Multifamily renters prioritize features and amenities that reflect a mobile, connected lifestyle, according to the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) and Grace Hill 2024 Renter Preferences Survey.
Industry Research | Nov 17, 2023
Air conditioning amenity sees largest growth in Pacific Northwest region
The 2024 Renter Preferences Survey Report sheds light on the demographics, lifestyle, connectivity needs, and more for the renters of today. At the top of this list—the feature that respondents are “interested in” or “won't rent without”—is air conditioning.
Multifamily Housing | Nov 9, 2023
Multifamily project completions forecast to slow starting 2026
Yardi Matrix has released its Q4 2023 Multifamily Supply Forecast, emphasizing a short-term spike and plateau of new construction.
MFPRO+ Special Reports | Oct 27, 2023
Download the 2023 Multifamily Annual Report
Welcome to Building Design+Construction and Multifamily Pro+’s first Multifamily Annual Report. This 76-page special report is our first-ever “state of the state” update on the $110 billion multifamily housing construction sector.
Market Data | Oct 23, 2023
New data finds that the majority of renters are cost-burdened
The most recent data derived from the 2022 Census American Community Survey reveals that the proportion of American renters facing housing cost burdens has reached its highest point since 2012, undoing the progress made in the ten years leading up to the pandemic.
Giants 400 | Oct 23, 2023
Top 115 Multifamily Construction Firms for 2023
Clark Group, Suffolk Construction, Summit Contracting Group, Whiting-Turner Contracting, and McShane Companies top the ranking of the nation's largest multifamily housing sector contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report. Note: This ranking factors revenue for all multifamily buildings work, including apartments, condominiums, student housing facilities, and senior living facilities.
Giants 400 | Oct 23, 2023
Top 75 Multifamily Engineering Firms for 2023
Kimley-Horn, WSP, Tetra Tech, Olsson, and Langan head the ranking of the nation's largest multifamily housing sector engineering and engineering/architecture (EA) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report. Note: This ranking factors revenue for all multifamily buildings work, including apartments, condominiums, student housing facilities, and senior living facilities.
Giants 400 | Oct 23, 2023
Top 190 Multifamily Architecture Firms for 2023
Humphreys and Partners, Gensler, Solomon Cordwell Buenz, Niles Bolton Associates, and AO top the ranking of the nation's largest multifamily housing sector architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2023, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2023 Giants 400 Report. Note: This ranking factors revenue for all multifamily buildings work, including apartments, condominiums, student housing facilities, and senior living facilities.